Handicapping

So, a very interesting subthread going on here.

You should probably read through the comments before continuing...









My Reply:

Most sports handicappers are known as scam artists.

So let's look at Handicapping, and why doing it in 40k is pointless the way the Necro is doing it.

Data.  What data?  Why is data important?

Well the heart of any handicapper is being professional about it.

They look at much more than a teams makeup--the team would be the players list.

1) Scores in other events.  Obviously, the final score rarely tells the story of the game.  Did the player get an early lead and then blow it late?  Did they defend their lead?  Did they come from behind?

2)  Match ups.  Ostensibly this is the GOAL of handicapping, but in reality this is just data for determining the handicap.  How does one list fare against another in similar situations?  Is there a consistent pattern that sets one list above the others that has nothing to do with the win-loss-tie record or the final tournament scores?

3)  Coaches.  That would be you, the player.  Do the 'players' on your 'team' play as well as the competition?  Are the correct for the game being played tactics used?  Is the coach experienced?

4)  Trending.  Is the list underperforming or overperforming?  Hot streak?  Cold streak?  How well does the 'coach' perform after 2 days of solid gaming?

5)  Strength of the list and it's coach.  How does the 'team' perform at home (their local store) vs an away environment, and against certain matchups?  What is the lists strength in the game that makes them different from other teams?

Honestly, what the Necro is doing is meddling in a very amateurish and non-scientific way.

If you mostly play Fantasy, you certainly are no expert on 40k and if money was riding on the game there's no way I'd use your rather unscientific and unprofessional 'methodology' to wager my cash.

Most of the 'analysis' can't even be done in the first place, because ALL of the data listed above simply does not exist.

There isn't a nationwide ranking system, which is the BASIS for handicapping ANY event.

Shit, you couldn't get a Vegas oddsmaker to lay down bets based on this, because you have no idea what you are doing and it shows.

This isn't a putdown on your tournament.  It might be the most sold out wonderful piece of fried chicken goodness I'll ever eat--but I wouldn't want to play if I was preassigned to my competitor by your prejudiced opinion.  If you prestack by list, don't pretend like you are doing anyone a favor, k?  Prestacking lists is lame, and is not any kind of handicapping system.

I'd look on the Necro forums for more info on this 'handicap' system since it's not advertised anywhere, but the fucking board has been down for the past two days and I've given up.

Running events this way is indeed WAAC gaming at it's worst, at it's most hypocritical.    GW used to try to do this, and people called bullshit on it until they stopped.

There is a reason people stopped going to the GW GT's, because GW tried to tell us what to bring and what was 'acceptable'.  Well, people said fuck you and left.  The Indy's aren't any better than GW, and putting in artificial limits is indeed a shitty thing to do to any sport.

The best way to make any kind of handicapping work is to:

A)  Actually run tournaments properly.  That means an elimination system, not that BOLScon stuff either.  Man that gives me a headache.  lol

B)  Have a national ranking system that is required for all players.  Not the crap GW uses, which is hopeless and helpless.

Here's the rating system you should use.

Here's several ways to run a tournament properly.  Swiss, and elimination.

Personally I think Accelerated Pairings should be used at events with over 40 players in a 5 game format.

7 game formats over 2 days are fail, BOLS.  You'll see. 

People will not enjoy playing each other twice, which is something that can be forbidden without upsetting the game system (just as making players from certain groups not have to play each other can also be handled easily).

So to recap:

You don't handicap.

Using a proper tournament format should really not be that difficult.

GW needs a real rating system not that stupid shit they currently use (which has no basis in reality).